Welcome to the homepage of Crown Actuaries
Looking at COVID 19 from a different perspective
Unfortunately COVID-19 has hit us all hard, economically, physically but also mentally, resulting in many deaths and total disruption of the health systems. It´s clear that we were not prepared for this and while banks have stress tests to see what happens in case of stress, where capital reserves are needed to prevent systems failures, the health system has no such thing. And it shows.
All over the world the healthcare system seems to fail and heavy meassures are taken in the form of Lock Downs, or contamination, to stop the system from collapsing. Maybe it might be necessary to take measures in the near future like we did during the financial crisis, in order to prevent this from happening again.
Despite all this everyone in the world is doing it´s utmost best to help solve in what we think the biggest catastrophe in our time.
On all levels virological and medical many research is done to litteraly conquer this virus and we are moving forward.
Treatments improve resulting is early stage detections and also lesser use of the ICU, but still there is a long way to go.
While on all levels the fight began we realised more could be done on the modelling part.
For us the main reason to start up this website.
Three actuaries felt the need to do something and face this virus that has us all in our grasp since the beginning of this year.
Our goal is to help and support with our modeling techniques which are different from the other ones that are used nowadays.
Many models are present using R programming and using data from the past to estimate the second or maybe even third wave using SIR or SEIR modelling techniques.
We built a simulation tool to simulate the COVID virus.
We believe that the data from the first and now second wave is still not stable enough and also doesn´t distinquish enough to understand the behavior of COVID.
If you are interested in knowing more have a look around.
We already wrote several pubications in de Actuaris, The Actuary and we hope many more to come.
We hope you not only enjoy reading our articles that are published so far, help us create an even better model with better assumptions based on reliable sources. All that to contribute and eventually conquer the novel coronavirus and go back to a normal life.