crownactuaries

Unfortunately COVID-19  has hit us all hard, economically, physically but also mentally, resulting in many deaths and total disruption of the health systems. It´s clear that we were not prepared for this and while banks have stress tests to see what happens in case of stress, where capital reserves are needed to prevent systems failures, the health system has no such thing. And it shows.

 

All over the world the healthcare system seems to fail and heavy meassures are taken in the form of Lock Downs, or contamination, to stop the system from collapsing. Maybe it might be necessary to take measures in the near future like we did during the financial crisis, in order to prevent this from happening again.

 

Despite all this everyone in the world is doing it´s utmost best to help solve in what we think the biggest catastrophe in our time.

On all levels virological and medical many research is done to litteraly conquer this virus and we are moving forward.

Treatments improve resulting is early stage detections and also lesser use of the ICU, but still there is a long way to go.

 

While on all levels the fight began we realised more could be done on the modelling part.

For us the main reason to start up  this website.

 

Three actuaries felt the need to do something and face this virus that has us all in our grasp since the beginning of this year. 

 

Our goal is to help and support with our modeling techniques which are different from the other ones that are used nowadays.

Many models are present using R programming and using data from the past to estimate the second or maybe even third wave using SIR or SEIR modelling techniques.

 

We built a simulation tool to simulate the COVID virus.

We believe that the data from the first and now second wave is still not stable enough and also doesn´t distinquish enough to understand the behavior of COVID.

If you are interested in knowing more have a look around.

 

The Crown Simulation Tool

Our tool simulates the life of the virus during 3 months (100 days) based on a sample population you can define yourself.

Based on a few parameters it is possible to look ahead and understand how COVID evolves over time inside the population.

We calculate the amount of admissions (hospitalizations) for the next 28 days, what we update every week based on newest input from the RIVM.

But we can calculate basically all states the virus goes in, how it is developing whithin the age, etc...

 

What is the power of our simulation tool?

1) An early warning system for the healthcare system.

In this way you have an accurate early warning system that gives the policymakers enough time to anticipate.

We can do this for every country. So far we have a model for the Netherlands and we used it to warn Aruba when the infections started to rise.

2) Calculate the impact of Government actions

It is possible to calculate the effect of Government meassures. For example, Ernst Kuipers wanted to get the R to 0.9.

The effect on that meassure is estimated by the LZAN, however we can calculate this by simulating.

Our current calculation is, so far, more accurate than the one the LZAN uses.

3) Calculating the impact on different exit strategies

Since we have predicted the movements and developments of COVID we can also define several exit strategies.

The coming period we will show this in more detail. It is already in the making.

 

What have we accomplished so far?

We already wrote several pubications in de Actuaris, The Actuary and we hope many more to come.

We hope you not only enjoy reading our articles that are published so far, help us create an even better model with better assumptions based on reliable sources. All that to contribute and eventually conquer the novel coronavirus and go back to a normal life.